Description

This analysis provides a forecast of EGLD prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 16.898683 19.253167 21.822331 24.834788 28.271667 32.072300 36.596578
2024-10-20 13.036500 15.977019 19.428150 23.780953 29.130586 35.498847 43.668366
2024-10-27 10.468709 13.700811 17.751469 23.208599 30.382999 39.514319 52.054204
2024-11-03 8.884776 12.368493 17.012661 23.671127 33.001042 45.653042 64.190335
2024-11-10 7.711158 11.381913 16.570793 24.464112 36.217301 53.150456 79.548587
2024-11-17 6.555899 10.227664 15.714059 24.542548 38.470243 59.727942 94.891810
2024-11-24 5.395691 8.869034 14.338009 23.619375 39.086134 64.022434 107.667001
2024-12-01 4.468303 7.717850 13.095340 22.695548 39.551562 68.187578 121.091286
2024-12-08 3.834677 6.944878 12.342646 22.458733 41.134632 74.500705 139.442242
2024-12-15 3.370776 6.387873 11.868158 22.628968 43.476664 82.572091 162.590276
2024-12-22 2.948535 5.834019 11.307636 22.544178 45.340228 90.118388 186.297834
2024-12-29 2.685694 5.540077 11.186609 23.288435 48.962295 101.716816 220.477800
2025-01-05 2.373653 5.105224 10.740943 23.354056 51.343814 111.527826 253.595846
2025-01-12 2.043622 4.574279 10.009673 22.689489 52.067731 118.051822 281.086843
2025-01-19 1.794904 4.175508 9.491376 22.400856 53.589933 126.672001 315.452463
2025-01-26 1.646955 3.979112 9.389569 23.058741 57.473870 141.556310 368.508988
2025-02-02 1.533172 3.843008 9.404516 24.007290 62.282673 159.692664 434.174299
2025-02-09 1.390278 3.609340 9.145262 24.226649 65.309889 174.039858 493.345752
2025-02-16 1.214706 3.260118 8.537287 23.425602 65.495749 181.062008 534.077499
2025-02-23 1.062271 2.943946 7.958871 22.594277 65.442702 187.473682 574.770955
2025-03-02 0.957412 2.738382 7.639000 22.425801 67.258973 199.577290 635.721237
2025-03-09 0.879696 2.595088 7.465440 22.650094 70.300486 215.955413 714.307097
2025-03-16 0.801463 2.435808 7.218379 22.608551 72.537046 230.428353 790.544347